The World Meteorological Organization has warned that a strengthening El Niño is likely to influence weather patterns and economic conditions across the globe through the end of 2026 and into early 2027. The agency said sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific are forecast to increase to record levels during October, November and December.
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern, but its effects are global. It can shift rainfall belts, alter the position of the jet stream and change the probability of heat, drought and flooding in different regions. The consequences vary by geography: some areas may experience damaging rainfall while others face water shortages, reduced agricultural output or higher wildfire risk.
The WMO’s warning is significant because it moves the event from a meteorological development to a planning issue for governments and businesses. Food producers must consider planting and harvest conditions, water agencies must reassess reservoir and flood risk, and energy companies must prepare for changes in heating, cooling and hydropower demand.
Supply chains may also be affected. Disruptions to agriculture, mining, transportation and power generation can transmit through commodity markets and manufacturing networks. Ports and logistics operators may face higher weather-related interruption risk, while food-importing countries could be exposed to price volatility if production falls in several regions at once.
The organization emphasized that El Niño’s effects are not uniform and should be interpreted alongside local forecasts. A strong event increases the probability of certain outcomes; it does not determine the exact weather in any specific city. Climate change also complicates comparisons with historical episodes because warmer baseline temperatures can intensify heat stress and amplify the damage caused by heavy rainfall.
The most important institutional lesson is the value of early preparation. Seasonal forecasts can support targeted action on water management, public health, agriculture and disaster response. They cannot eliminate uncertainty, but they can reduce the cost of waiting until extreme conditions are already underway.
The WMO expects the event to peak later in the year. Monitoring will remain important because the timing, intensity and regional distribution of impacts may change as the ocean-atmosphere system develops.
Sources: - https://wmo.int/media/news/sea-surface-temperatures-reflect-strengthening-el-nino - https://cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml